Excellent commentary by James Turk from the King World Blog
With gold near all-time highs and silver near multi-decade highs, today King World News interviewed James Turk out of London. Turk remarked, “Eric I have really been focusing a lot on what central banks are doing and how their actions might be impacting my long-standing forecast for the price of gold. You probably know back in 2003 I stated in a Barron’s interview that the Dow/Gold ratio would be 1 to 1 again sometime between 2013 and 2015. My thinking had been that gold would be $8,000 and the Dow would be 8,000, but now my thinking has changed.”
“I think that my gold forecast was too conservative. Given the way central banks are printing money when they are buying government debt, I think the 1 to 1 ratio is going to be reached at a much higher price.
People don’t understand how much wealth destruction has yet to occur as this financial bust that we are in works to its inevitable conclusion. In effect, the Dow has to lose 90% vs gold. This wealth destruction is going to devastate a great many investors, in fact most of them will never recover from this event.
As I said earlier Eric, my thinking has changed as we have been going through this cycle. This time around is not going to be like the gold bull market of the 1970’s. The dollar is going to lose its status as the world’s reserve currency. This is fundamentally different than what occurred in the 1970’s.
The US government has been running some of the largest deficits in history. That means a lot of dollars are going to be created by the Federal Reserve to fund this newly created debt. Recently we have been focusing on the US dollar and I want to be clear that I expect the dollar to drop to levels never seen before in history, and the scary part Eric is that it could do it very, very quickly.
When we take out the all-time low of 71.33 on the dollar index, we move into uncharted waters and there is no telling where the collapse of the dollar will end. Some states are already taking steps to protect their citizens from the collapse of the dollar. The Utah House just passed a bill calling for the return of the use of gold as a currency and there are at least half a dozen other states considering similar legislation.
I’m often asked by people when do I think they should sell their gold? I tell them this time around it’s going to be easy because you are not going to sell your gold, you’re going to spend it. In other words, gold will once again become currency.”
The dollar collapse will be like a thief in the night for most people. As Turk mentioned previously it will shock the world, and as Sam Zell stated recently, it will cause a disastrous decline in the standard of living for Americans. For investors who are overweight the Dow they stand to lose 90% vs gold. I agree with Turk, most of those people will never ever recover from that wealth destruction.